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1.
The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems. 相似文献
2.
旱灾具有出现频率高、持续时间长、波及范围广等特点,本文运用降水距平百分率、Z指数、SPI标准化降水指数,对朝阳地区50a(1969~2018)干旱特征进行分析。结果表明:Z指数与SPI标准化降水指标得到的朝阳地区干旱特征情况基本一致,能较好地反映出该地区的干旱特征,朝阳地区1969~2018年自然灾害频繁发生,严重干旱年份主要集中在1980、1981、1982 年,与实际相符。 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACTIn recent years, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are widely placed in real-time monitoring systems like environmental, structural, patient monitoring, etc. The major criterion for WSN includes energy efficiency and network lifetime. Scheduling is used as a large number of data packets focus on the same queue at the same time. Only limited data scheduling schemes have been implemented in WSN to enhance the performance. The existing First Come First Serve (FCFS) and Dynamic Multilevel Priority (DMP) have some technical challenges like delay, packet drop and high energy consumption due to starvation and deadlock. In this paper, we proposed a new algorithm to optimise and rank the incoming data packets based on multi-attributes decision-making methodology named as Packet Rank Based Data Scheduling (PRBDS), the algorithm selects packet priority, deadline, and size as the metrics to rank the incoming data packets. A simulation result shows when compared with existing scheduling, PRBDS not only provides less energy consumption, also significantly reduces the packet drop and increases the lifetime. Thus, the proposed algorithm is most suitable for real-time monitoring system since it combines data ranking method with scheduling algorithm to create accurate and reliable results to evaluate the incoming data packets. 相似文献
4.
《Planning》2015,(3)
目的 评估腹腔脏器病变患者术前经腹超声检查报告并分析超声漏诊及误诊的原因。方法 通过病理工作站导出2013年3月1日至8月31日因腹腔脏器(肝脏、胆囊、胆管、胰腺、脾脏、肾脏、肾上腺和阑尾)病变于北京协和医院进行手术治疗的住院患者病理资料,评估相应超声报告,记录漏、误诊报告信息,分析漏、误诊原因。结果 共评估超声报告1081份,漏、误诊报告58份(5.37%,58/1081),其中肝脏病变6例(5.77%,6/104),均为误诊;胆囊和胆管病变6例(1.30%,6/462),漏诊5例、误诊1例;胰腺病变14例(19.72%,14/71),均为漏诊;肾脏和肾上腺病变20例(6.47%,20/309),漏诊11例、误诊9例;阑尾病变12例(16.00%,12/75),漏诊11例、误诊1例。漏诊结节样病变最大径平均值显著低于误诊病变(P=0.001)。结论 不同腹腔脏器病变因性质、部位、体积以及超声本身的局限性等原因导致超声漏诊或误诊,超声医师在临床工作中应做到全面、仔细、谨慎,了解各腹腔脏器病变的自身特点以及超声显像的局限性,不断积累经验,尽可能避免不必要的错误。 相似文献
5.
《International Journal of Hydrogen Energy》2022,47(12):7870-7883
We have investigated the hydrogen storage capabilities of scandium decorated holey graphyne, a recently synthesized carbon allotrope, by applying density functional theory and molecular dynamics simulations. We have observed that one unit cell of holey graphyne can adsorb 6 Sc atoms, and each Sc atom can adsorb up to 5H2 molecules with an average binding energy and average desorption temperature of ?0.36 eV/H2 and 464 K, respectively. The gravimetric weight percentage of hydrogen is 9.80%, which is considerably higher than the Department of Energy, United-States requirements of 6.5%. We have found that a total amount of 1.9e charge transfers from the 3d and 4s orbitals of Sc atom to the C-2p orbitals of holey graphyne by performing the Bader charge analysis. Hydrogen molecules are bonded with the scandium atom by Kubas interactions. The ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations confirm the structural integrity of scandium decorated holey graphyne system at the high desorption temperatures. The presence of sufficient diffusion energy barriers for the Sc atom ensure the avoidance of metal-metal clustering in the system. 相似文献
6.
为了研究Y12Cr18Ni9Cu奥氏体易切削钢的高温力学性能,利用Gleeble-3500热模拟机对Y12Cr18Ni9Cu钢进行了不同温度的高温拉伸试验,并对断口形貌、抗拉强度以及断面收缩率进行了分析。结果表明,随着温度升高试验钢的高温抗拉强度逐渐降低,断面收缩率逐渐增加。试验钢的低温脆性区为800~900℃,未出现高温脆性区。低温脆性区的出现是由于材料在热变形过程中没有发生动态再结晶,并且由于硫化物与基体所能承受的变形能力不同,裂纹在硫化物与基体界面产生,最终导致脆性断裂。在1150~1250℃温度范围内,试验钢发生了动态再结晶并表现出良好的高温热塑性,Y12Cr18Ni9Cu奥氏体易切削钢的热加工温度应选择在1150~1250℃之间。 相似文献
7.
用流变学原理探讨了掺防冻剂新排水泥净浆、砂浆、混凝土之间的减水率关系,将黑龙江省防冻剂分为高、中、低减水率型,建立了三种浆体的水布比与减水率间的回归方程。 相似文献
8.
抗滑表层沥青混合料试验参数研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
针对近年来沥青路面抗滑表层混合料在生产中暴露出来的耐久性差、抗滑能力不持久等问题 ,认为不能简单的对这一级配形式予以否定 ,并尝试通过对其击实次数、空隙率指标等关键试验参数进行调整以改善其路用性能。在理论分析与试验研究的基础上 ,提出在抗滑表层混合料配合比设计中 ,将规范要求的马歇尔试件双面 5 0次击实改为 75次 ,同时相应降低空隙率要求 ,对保持路面抗滑性能与耐久性能之间的平衡、提高混合料的各项路用性能具有重要的意义 相似文献
9.
本文基于Mer<Mu的条件,通过电算手段得出了预应力混凝土压弯构件受拉筋最小配筋率的计算图表,使之由被动的校核型转变为主动的选择型,方便了设计。 相似文献
10.
混凝土早期自收缩与极限拉伸应变的相关性试验 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
通过研究混凝土早期自收缩与相应极限拉伸应变间的关系,对水灰比及砂率对混凝土早期自收缩的影响规律进行分析。研究结果表明,混凝土早期自收缩大小与相应的极限拉伸应变具有显著的二次曲线关系;随着水灰比的降低和砂率的增大,混凝土早期自收缩明显增大。 相似文献